The budget deal nobody likes may just end up being the budget deal everyone regrets.

California's lead lawmakers struck a deal to close the state's gaping $26.3 billion budget deficit that, if approved by the Legislature Thursday, may end up doing just what Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has repeatedly pledged to avoid: Depending on gimmickry to put off addressing tough decisions.

The deal struck Monday night includes more than $15 billion in spending cuts, but utilizes $11 million in accounting gimmicks, borrowing and rosy assumptions to close the deficit. Combined with a global recession, it is likely to lead to yet another multi-billion dollar deficit in the next fiscal year, or sooner.

”Frankly, we may not be done yet,” said Senate leader Darrell Steinberg (D-Sacramento). “We pray for better economic news sooner rather than later.”

Former North Coast Assemblywoman Patty Berg had a similar take. While the deal struck Monday night is acceptable given the circumstances, she said it almost guarantees more fiscal strife is to come in the state's future.

”This isn't the end-all by any means,” she said. “Until we deal with the revenue side of this picture, we're going to be in this pickle.”

With the state's future budgets already burdened by a virtual mountain of required debt payments, this deal simply adds to the load. It borrows $2 billion from local governments' property tax revenue, money

The deal frees up another $1 billion through accelerating the collection of 2010 personal income and corporate taxes, meaning tax payers will essentially be giving the state an interest-free loan until they claim the money on tax returns. The deal also sells off part of the State Compensation Insurance Fund for another estimated $1 billion.

To make up for billions of dollars in education cuts this year, the deal also promises the state will repay more than $9 billion -- more than 10 percent of this year's general fund -- to schools once the economy rebounds.

Perhaps the most blatant gimmick in the deal defers state employee's paychecks by one day for a paper savings of $1 billion. Instead of being issued on June 30, 2010, the paychecks would be issued July 1, the start of the 2010-2011 fiscal year. Viewed through another lens, this year's $1 billion savings mean an instant $1 billion hit to next year's general fund.

In many ways, the agreement struck Monday night simply seems to run counter to Schwarzenegger's pledge to stop “kicking the can down the alley.”

But both sides of the debate seemed to be claiming a win, at least begrudgingly, on Tuesday. Republicans lauded the fact that the budget deal contains no tax increases, and many Democrats were pleased to at least have staved off the elimination of the state's safety net for the poor and elderly, which Schwarzenegger had proposed.

The deal cuts $1.3 billion from Medical, $528 million from CalWORKS, $124 million from Healthy Families and $226 million from in-home supportive services for the frail and disabled.

”Those are horrid,” Berg said, quickly adding that, with most of the programs having been proposed for total elimination, Democratic lawmakers did their best given the circumstances.

North Coast State Sen. Patricia Wiggins agreed.

”While it's accurate to say that this agreement includes cuts that may prove harmful to real people, it could have been worse, much worse,” Wiggins said in a statement. “It spares almost no category of programs or services, but it prevents permanent damage to our schools, it prevents elimination of safety net programs and it takes less money from local governments than what the governor had first proposed. No one is applauding this budget, but it had to be done.”

For his part, North Coast Assemblyman Wesley Chesbro withheld judgment on Tuesday.

”We have yet to see the entire budget agreement,” Chesbro said in a statement. “The devil is in the details. I need to review the proposals in detail before I make any decisions.”

It's a safe bet others, including interest groups, constituents and lobbyists will be doing the same, and pressuring lawmakers in advance of Thursday's vote.

Eureka Police Chief Garr Nielsen said he was pleased to see some early budget proposals -- like passing jail booking fees and crime lab costs on to local agencies -- were dropped.

However, Nielsen said, he plans on calling Wiggins and Chesbro to voice his concern over part of the deal which cuts $1.2 billion from the Department of Corrections, cuts expected to be realized through the early release of roughly 25,000 inmates.

”The problem for us is that statistics show that these people have a very high recidivism rate and, typically, you can count on a large percentage of them re-offending,” Nielsen said. “So, when you get an influx of those people in your community, you can expect there will be a significant increase in criminal activity.”

Local governments are also expected to exert as much pressure as they can on lawmakers to reject the deal, which depends heavily on borrowing from their coffers. The Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors voted Tuesday to sue she state if they pursue plans to seize local funds, a move expected to be undertaken by other local governments as well in an effort to pressure the Legislature.

There's also a proposal in the deal to expand oil drilling off the coast of Santa Barbara, overturning a state commission's decision earlier this year, which is considered a deal-killer for some Democratic lawmakers and will surely draw fire from some politically powerful environmental groups.

Public employee unions are also upset about a provision in the deal that would force them to take three unpaid furlough days a month, resulting in a savings of $1.3 billion.

The unions have already threatened to sue over the provision, and will surely exert pressure on lawmakers in advance of Thursday's vote.

Many Democrats contend that many of the cuts in the deal could have been prevented if Republicans had agreed to raise some taxes, especially those on cigarette sales and oil production. But Republican lawmakers and Schwarzenegger refused to budge on the issue. Without their support, Wiggins said Democrats had no other choice.

”As long as they maintain the ability to block anything they don't like, it will be difficult, if not impossible, for us to pass a budget in which everyone, including oil companies and wealthy corporations, is truly asked to do their fair share,” Wiggins said.

The Associated Press contributed to this report

Thadeus Greenson can be reached at 441-0509 or tgreenson@times-standard.com