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The backers of the Oakland-based state initiative to tax and regulate marijuana submitted its petitions Thursday, but supporters and experts are saying no one is holding their breath for legalization come November.
The California Cannabis Initiative -- backed mainly by Oakland medical marijuana entrepreneur Richard Lee, who also helped push a first-of-its-kind tax on city medical marijuana dispensaries last year -- received approximately 700,000 signatures, with names from every one of California's 58 counties, according to a press release.
The initiative needed 433,971 signatures to qualify for November's statewide ballot.
”This is a historic day,” Lee said in the release. “The people of California now have the opportunity to support a common-sense solution for a broken budget and dysfunctional drug laws.”
Lee is the founder of Oaksterdam University.
Similar to the current regulation of alcohol and tobacco, the initiative will give local governments the ability to tax and regulate the sale of small amounts of marijuana to adults age 21 and older.
The initiative also increases the penalty for providing marijuana to a minor, expressly prohibits the consumption of marijuana in public, forbids smoking marijuana while minors are present, and bans possession on school grounds.
Supporters of this initiative, as well as other marijuana legalization initiatives, are saying California is ready for marijuana
Studies by the state Board of Equalization and the Legislative Analyst's Office show that the initiative will generate billions of dollars, while recent polls have shown that a majority of Californians support marijuana legalization.
Local attorney and long-time medical marijuana activist Greg Allen said marijuana legalization is an idea whose time has come.
”As I understand it, cannabis is the largest cash crop in the largest agricultural state in the largest agricultural economy in the history of the human race,” Allen said. “Because most of it's been black market, it's never really been taxed, and that's a significant amount of potentially taxable commerce that's never generated any tax revenue. It just seems to me that certainly being able to get this commodity economically integrated into our economy would be highly desirable and probably would raise significant tax money.”
But Allen said he has some doubts about this specific initiative.
He said the initiative leaves it up to the Legislature to form a statewide regulatory system for a commercial marijuana industry, which could take years. Until that happens, Allen said the initiative really wouldn't change a whole lot.
It would decriminalize possession of less than an ounce of marijuana, but the initiative doesn't specifically say what the punishments would be for possessing more.
”If someone is cultivating illegally, what's a felony and what's a misdemeanor?” Allen asked. “If it's a felony, then it's probably still worthwhile for the Drug Task Force to be making marijuana busts. If it's a misdemeanor, they're probably not going to bother. I find that to be a very important distinction.”
He said that local law enforcement doesn't really go after people possessing amounts less than those the initiative would legalize.
Further, Allen said that until the Legislature acts to put a legal framework to the initiative to govern the cultivation and sales of marijuana, there will still be black market grows and an increased potential for medical cannabis to be diverted to the black market.
Whether or not marijuana advocates agree with the initiative, there is no denying that it spurs conversation, said Allen St. Pierre, executive director of the National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML).
He said pro-marijuana initiatives generally lose support from the point when they are initially announced, as opposition groups begin advertising and speaking out against them. But more importantly, they help generate discussion, he said.
”It will very much centralize this discussion just the way that medical marijuana did in 1996,” St. Pierre said, invoking a phrase that was commonly used at NORML's conference last year, “So goes California, so goes the country.”
While NORML initially was hesitant to support the initiative because organizers thought a legalization measure ultimately would not pass in November, St. Pierre said they recognized an opportunity to establish support for a future initiative. NORML announced its support for the initiative in December.
Right now, it is estimated that about 45 or 46 percent of voters will support the initiative, St. Pierre said.
”One hopes that we can keep these numbers, build on them and we won't see any loss on these numbers,” he said.
Kareem Crayton, an associate professor of law and political science at the University of Southern California, said many factors will play out as the election draws near. Crayton is affiliated with the Initiative & Referendum Institute based in the USC School of Law.
Speaking in general terms, he agreed with St. Allen's view of an initiative being a means of generating discussion on an issue.
”The process itself, regardless of outcome, can be an educational tool to the public,” Crayton said, adding that discussion can also attract funding on either side of a debate, which affects the election and any future initiative on the subject.
Speaking specifically to this year's election and marijuana legalization initiatives in general, Crayton said there may be some variables that aren't expected, such as the type of voter who will support the measure and how many people show up to the polls.
While a mid-term election year often attracts less people, this year's competitive governor's race may increase numbers, Crayton said. Furthermore, the state's budget crisis may attract voters for the initiative who are usually not inclined to vote. But he cautioned that there are many factors at work which make results hard to predict.
”Usually in an off-year election, voters are older, whiter and more conservative, and might not traditionally vote for marijuana legalization,” Crayton said. “But they will support solidifying the budget. ... It could just attract people that are looking for a way out.”
Staff Writer Thadeus Greenson contributed to this report.
Donna Tam can be reached at 441-0532 or dtam@times-standard.com.
