Remember when the Prius, introduced in America in 2001, seemed futuristic?

Today it's ubiquitous. And a little more than a decade from now, Toyota's original hybrid electric car might seem positively old school.

Thanks to a sweeping set of state air quality regulations approved Friday, cars with no tailpipe emissions -- powered by electricity or hydrogen and little or no gas -- will make up more than 15 percent of new vehicles sold in the state by 2025.

Some 1.4 million zero-emissions and plug-in hybrid vehicles would be cruising on California roadways within 13 years. And strict new limits on smog-forming pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions from tailpipes will be phased in for all cars beginning in 2017.

"The vehicles of today are not the vehicles of the 2017 time frame. It's going to be different," Steve Douglas of the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers told state air regulators.

The rules, approved unanimously by the California Air Resources Board Friday after a two-day hearing, are intended to spur automotive innovation while dramatically cutting emissions that contribute to harmful health effects and climate change.

"This really is a historic new chapter in California's history with the automobile," said Mary Nichols, the board's chairwoman.

The package of rules, she said, would "lead the way for the nation and the world."

Though automakers have been largely on board with the plan, car dealer groups criticized the zero-emissions mandate. Many express appreciation for the vehicles, but don't think market demand will be high enough in time for the state deadline.

"It's not because we're pigheaded and we don't like electric cars," said Peter Welch, president of the California New Car Dealers Association. "Quite the opposite. There's no way we're going to hit 15.4 percent of market share by 2025. ... Our problem with the mandate is it's unrealistically high."

And yet automakers are charging ahead.

Air Resources Board spokesman Dave Clegern noted that almost every major automaker has a low- or zero-emissions vehicle now or coming out soon. That was evident at the green-tinged Los Angeles Auto Show in November, he said.

"If you went in 2001, you saw five to seven clean cars. In 2011, there were nearly 50 that we consider to be clean cars," Clegern said.

Consumers bought more than 17,000 battery-powered Nissan Leafs and Chevy Volts last year. That's a tiny fraction of the U.S. car market, but fans say it's not too shabby for the cars' first year on the market.

Mark Perry, Nissan North America's director of product planning, told the air board Thursday that the company's

capacity to build the in-demand Leaf will triple when a new plant in Tennessee is up and running.

"This is a mass-market launch for us and we are moving to mass-market adoption," Perry said.

While automakers have quibbled with a variety of details, most said they were broadly in favor of the regulations, dubbed the Advanced Clean Cars Program. That attitude marks a huge shift from reactions to previous California air pollution mandates, and it comes in part because of the high cost of oil.

Meanwhile, environmental, health and consumer groups have lined up behind the regulations, which are intended to reduce vehicles' greenhouse gas emissions by 34 percent and cut unhealthy, smog-forming pollution by 75 percent by 2025.

"Californians will have the opportunity sooner than the rest of the country to plug in their car," said Roland Hwang, transportation program director for the Natural Resources Defense Council.

In an interview, Hwang said that as more clean cars are produced, still-high costs for greener technology will get reduced for both carmakers and buyers.

"Because of higher fuel prices, because the world is moving to higher standards, what you're going to see is massive economies of scale working in favor of the consumer, bringing down the price," Hwang said.

For the first three years of the program, from 2018 to 2021, automakers will have some flexibility to get credits toward zero-emission requirements if other cars they produce surpass the national greenhouse gas emissions standards. That provision was called a loophole by environmental groups -- and some carmakers didn't like it either.

Nichols said the provision was a "temporary way station" on the path to requiring all carmakers to meet zero-emissions mandates.

Air board staff say the new regulations would raise the cost of vehicles an average of $1,900, but consumers would save overall because they'd spend some $6,000 less on gas over the life of their cars.

Dealers dispute those figures, but predictions of savings have garnered support from consumer groups.

"Not only will this save the environment, it will save consumers too," Jack Gillis, director of public affairs for the Consumer Federation of America, told the board.

The regulations also require energy companies to build hydrogen-fueling stations to help support the market for fuel-cell-powered vehicles. At the air board's Thursday hearing, representatives of the oil industry mentioned potential litigation over the fueling station requirement.


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