Font Resize

Immigration reform: 7 ways that the bill could fail

Ryan Teague Beckwith, Digital First Media

Posted: 01/31/2013 08:41:21 AM PST

Updated: 01/31/2013 08:42:34 AM PST

A bipartisan group of leading senators announce that they have reached agreement on the principles of sweeping legislation to rewrite the nation's immigration laws, during a news conference at the Capitol in Washington, Monday, Jan. 28, 2013. From left are Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and Sen. Robert Menendez, D-N.J. The deal covers border security, guest workers and employer verification, as well as a path to citizenship for the 11 million illegal immigrants already in this country. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite) (J. Scott Applewhite)

View the story "Immigration reform: 7 ways that the bill could fail" on StorifyImmigration reform: 7 ways that the bill could failStorified by Digital First Media· Thu, Jan 31 2013 08:37:54Both Republicans and Democrats are moving forward on a plan to overhaul the nation's immigration system. But with so much at stake, there are multiple ways the legislation could fail. Here are seven big ones:

A fight over border enforcement breaks out

Abcnewsradioonline(Scott Olson / Getty Images)The Senate proposal calls for a commission of Southwest political and community leaders to decide when the border is secure before undocumented immigrants can become citizens. Some Democrats may be leery of giving Republicans such as Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer a say in how the bill is implemented.Probability: High. Republicans will want some kind of check to ensure follow-through on enforcement.

A fight over gay immigrants breaks out

Examiner(Michael Nagle/Getty
Advertisement
Images)President Obama's blueprint for an immigration overhaul includes protection for people in long-term same-sex relationships, which is not in the bipartisan Senate proposal. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., a key backer, said that including that could kill the plan, saying Democrats might as well add "taxpayer-funded abortion."Probability: High. Obama has taken up the gay rights mantle in recent months.

A fight over national ID breaks out

Courier-journal(Getty Images/Comstock Images)The Senate proposal calls for a "tough, fair, effective and mandatory" way for employers to verify that workers are not undocumented immigrants, while Obama's plan calls for better Social Security cards. Civil liberties groups oppose any kind of national ID over privacy concerns, and it could spark concerns among some conservative activists too.Probability: Medium. It will be hard to develop an employment verification system without some kind of ID standards.

Rubio opposes the final bill

Denverpost(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., is not a member of the bipartisan gang of eight senators drafting an immigration overhaul, but he is a key salesman for the proposal to conservative audiences. One Republican pollster said that if Rubio "signals any mistrust or misgivings" with the final bill, it could collapse.Probability: Medium. As a likely 2016 presidential contender, Rubio has to maintain a difficult balance.

The tea party comes out against it

DenverpostDavid Walker attends a tea party rally in support of Arizona's immigration law in 2010. (AP Photo/Matt York) The tea party, a loosely affiliated group of conservative activists, rose to prominence in response to President Obama's health care proposal and nearly prevented it from becoming law. If the tea party, or a similar grassroots group, comes out en masse against the bill, it could cause Congress to get cold feet.Probability: Low. Tea party-backed members of Congress are holding their fire, but activists are upset.

Republicans decide it won't help

Denverpost(AP Photo/Alan Diaz)A major reason that Republicans are supporting an immigration overhaul is that the party's nominee did poorly among Hispanic voters in the presidential campaign. Party leaders hope that passing a bill will improve their standing, but some pundits argue that it won't really help. If enough GOP members of Congress agree, the bill is doomed. Probability: Low. Boehner, among others, backs an overhaul.

Boehner sticks with the majority of the GOP

Denverpost(AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)In recent years, the speaker of the House has followed a rule that legislation can only pass if it has the support of the "majority of the majority." Speaker John Boehner broke this rule twice this year already to pass a tax deal and aid for Superstorm Sandy victims, but if he's not willing to break it a third time, an immigration overhaul is doomed.Probability: Low. Boehner faced down an uprising in January with ease, so if he backs a bill, it'll pass.

Font Resize

Return to Top

• FAQ: Article commenting how-tos and tips

(From the last 12 hours)

Immigration reform: 7 ways that the bill could fail

Top Classifieds