HERE'S a post-Halloween fright for the Bay Are

a: A new analysis of population data shows the region could lose a congressional representative after the 2010 census.

"The nine-county Bay Area region's near-zero population growth means it faces the loss of an entire congressional district," said Rose Institute fellow Douglas Johnson. "Either a district will have to be collapsed or districts will have to extend eastward to pick up population from after-growing inland districts."

According to the Claremont McKenna College-based institute's analysis, the district with the smallest population in the state will be that of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco.

Ranking 2, 3 and 4 in population size will be Pelosi's neighboring reps, Jackie Speier, Barbara Lee and Anna Eshoo.

To create districts of roughly equal population, report authors say, a new plan will likely either combine Bay Area districts or extend them into northern Central Valley communities such as Modesto and Stockton.

The Democratic-controlled Legislature will adopt the new districts subject to approval of the newly elected governor in 2010.

The congressman with the most to fear may be Democrat Jerry McNerney, of Pleasanton, whose district straddles the Bay Area and San Joaquin County.

He is in a rare competitive seat. If he survives his 2010 re-election bid, he could find himself

"Given its proximity to the population-starved San Francisco Bay Area, this district likely to be significantly redrawn," the report concludes. (Read the full analysis at rosereport.org.)

GUV LITE LEADS. The first and only independent poll in Tuesday's special election in the 10th Congressional District shows Democratic Lt. Gov. John Garamendi with a 10-point lead over GOP opponent David Harmer at 50 percent to 40 percent.

SurveyUSA conducted the survey for CBS Channel 5 last week of 581 likely and actual voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percent.

Garamendi's camp touted the poll as a happy augury of the lieutenant governor's victory.

They are probably right.

But the poll isn't entirely good news for Garamendi.

Granted, it is a low turnout special election where conventional wisdom sometimes falls short.

In theory, though, Garamendi ought to have a bigger lead.

Democrats have an 18-point registration advantage in the 10th District. He is the lieutenant governor of California. Harmer has never held public office. Garamendi has twice as much money.

The last thing Garamendi wants is a close election — it could fuel challengers' 2010 ambitions.

MONEY MONEY. Dueling mall giants locked in Tuesday's ballot fight over a Neiman Marcus in downtown Walnut Creek are on track to spend more than $2 million on Measure I.

Proponent Macerich is outspending opponent Taubman 2 to 1, a clear reflection of the Walnut Creek mall owner's heavy investment in the project.

No wonder the markup on that darling Jimmy Choo handbag is so high.

GOT POLITICS? Read the Political Blotter at www.ibabuzz.com/politics.

AND FINALLY. Who knew Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger was such a big fan of word search puzzles?

An intrepid San Francisco Bay Guardian reporter posted last week a bill veto message from the governor in which the first letter of each line spells out a not-printable-in-family-newspaper message to Assemblyman Tom Ammiano, D-San Francisco. (There's a link on my blog.)

You may recall that Ammiano yelled "kiss my gay (expletive)" this month when the governor showed up at a San Francisco event.

The disclosure sent reporters to their e-mail boxes, where they feverishly scanned the governor's other veto messages in search of hidden messages.

Alas, none surfaced.

I guess it's back to water policy.

Reach Lisa Vorderbrueggen at lvorderbrueggen@bayareanewsgroup.com or 925-945-4773 or www.ibabuzz.com/politics.