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Five reasons why the presidential election is already over
Storified by Digital First Media · Thu, Nov 01 2012 06:35:07
There are still a few days left before the presidential election on Nov. 6. But that hasn’t stopped pundits and political operatives from saying it’s already over. Here’s a look at some of the arguments they’re making.
The statistical models show Obama ahead in swing states.
Forget the national polls. What matters is which candidate is ahead in the swing states. New York Times’ blogger Nate Silver’s survey of state polling
shows Obama winning
299 Electoral College votes; Votamatic’s
Drew Linzer projects 332
; The New Republic’s Nate Cohn
argues Obama’s ahead
; as does the Princeton Election Consortium’s Sam Wang. Real Clear Politics’ map with no tossups
shows Obama at 281
The economic fundamentals favor Obama (or Romney).
But wait… None of those economic indicators are improving quickly enough. They only show a narrow Obama advantage which could fall apart because of lagging enthusiasm, campaign mistakes or low turnout.
Romney is expanding the map.
Obama has a better ground game.
Republicans always win on Nov. 6.
“Since election day was standardized in 1845 there have been six presidential elections held on November 6th and
Republicans have won all six
.That means next Tuesday, the 7th Presidential election held on this date, willeither break or uphold a streak that began in 1860 with the election of AbrahamLincoln.”
The bottom line…
Nobody knows anything.